India 2020 and way ahead

When India was 'Shining' at the beginning of this century, many of us wondered, how would India be in 2020.  We think that we are no more a poor country. We have also become aspirational. So how has India fared since independence? Has there been any improvement in the standards of living? What is the condition of minorities and vulnerable people in our country? It is very difficult to give a simplistic, yes - or - no binary answers to these questions. Our nation is not younger anymore. Seventy-four years is a period good enough to assess the performance of our country. 

What have we achieved then? The list is long but some achievements deserve to be highlighted.  First, the Government has been mostly stable and representative since our independence. Among the 12 Asian countries that gained independence soon after World War II and drafted Constitutions, only three Constitutions have survived—India, Taiwan, and South Korea. (The Constitution of Japan was largely drafted by US lawyers). The elections conducted after independence have been largely fair which in turn makes the transfer of power from one party to another, a peaceful affair.

Businesses thrive only when the Governments are stable and the transfer of power is systematic. We cannot educate the young, take care of the old, and make a living when there is instability. This might be taken for granted but a closer view at our neighbors will make the point more lucid. Not a single Prime minister has completed his/her full tenure in Pakistan and its constitution has been changed many times. Sri Lanka was fraught with civilian wars till 2009. Myanmar was controlled by Military Junta till 2015 (and the influence extends even now). Bangladesh had a series of military coups till 1991 and election malpractices were rampant after the parliamentary system was established. The 2018 Bangladesh general election was marred by allegations of widespread vote-rigging.  Aren't we better when compared to our peers?

Second, the government, irrespective of whatever party is in power, has waged a war on poverty. India has made momentous progress in reducing multidimensional poverty, according to estimates from the 2018 global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI). The incidence of multidimensional poverty has almost halved between 2005 - 06 and 2015-16, climbing down to 27.5 percent from 54.7 percent. India has shed its dubious tag of being the country with the largest number of people living in extreme poverty recently. Poverty alleviation programs such as Mahatma National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA), Midday Meal Schemes, National Food Security act are targeted to reduce the incidence of poverty. India never had a famine since independence. (Chinese had a famine in the 1950s, due to Mao Zedong's ill-thought-out programs such as Great Leap Forward).

Most of the families in India have an optimistic outlook about their future. Most of us are young and ambitious. India has transformed itself from being the Begging Bowl of the World to one of the largest consumer markets in the world. This would not have happened had we not taken poverty alleviation seriously. India has pushed a lot of people into the middle-income category.

Poverty alleviation would not have been possible without Economic development. India in 2020 is the fifth largest economy in the world in nominal terms. The economy of India is one of the oft-discussed themes by academics and scholars. India slowly drifted from Fabian Socialism to Market economy.  Fundamental reforms in 1991, paved the way for prosperity.  Green revolution ensured that we did not have to depend upon other countries for rice and wheat.  We are now a de -facto nuclear weapons state and have a nuclear trade deal with countries like the US, Japan, Russia. Unless we are an emerging economic superpower, the US has no reason to have a nuclear deal with us. India is one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the world, although, in recent years, it looks like the growth story of India has bottomed out. Even during the times when there was good growth, India was facing a persistent inflation problem. Demonetization, which was supposed to eliminate the menace of Black money, derailed the Indian economy from its growth path. Tax reforms such as GST, which was believed to increase the GDP growth rate by 2- 3%, didn't materialize properly. Indian economy is contracting for the first time in the 21st century due to the COVID - 19 impact. But many experts predict a 'V' shaped recovery. 

Fourth, Are the minorities treated well in the country? The answer is both Yes and No. According to the 2011 census, about 80% of the people in our country are Hindus and about 14% are Muslims. Jains, Buddhists, Sikhs, Parsis constitute the remaining percentage. Credits must be given to the constitution-makers for making our constitution unbiased towards a particular religion.  

Are Muslims in Danger in India? The answer is strong no. Do they feel insecure? They may or they may not. It is a general tendency of any minorities in any country to feel it that way but how successful are we in improving the plight of the Muslims? Since independence, the rate of increase of the Muslim poppulation is higher than that of Hindu population as a result of higher Muslim fertility. At 42.7 percent, Muslims have the highest percentage of illiterates, according to Census 2011 data on education level by religious community and gender. The Sachar Committee, constituted by the UPA - 1 government to study the social, economic, and educational conditions of Muslims, highlighted that while Muslims constitute 14% of the Indian population, they only comprise 2.5% of the Indian bureaucracy.

What about Scheduled Caste and Tribes? They comprise about 16.6% and 8.6%, respectively, of India's population. The Indian Caste system is one of the oldest surviving forms of social stratification. Here too, Government has introduced a lot of legislation and reforms such as Reservation of Jobs and seats in educational institutions, Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, Untouchability Practices Act, National Commission for Scheduled Castes, National Commission for Scheduled Tribes, etc.  Yet, According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)’s global multidimensional poverty index (MPI), 2018, every second person belonging to the Scheduled Tribes and every third person belonging to the Scheduled Castes remains poor.

The writer finds it problematic to use the word, "Secular". As most of us would know, the word secularism was added in the preamble of the constitution in the year 1976. Secularism, roughly speaking, amounts to the separation of religion from state. Many observers call our government's way of dealing with religion as Indian Secularism, be that as it may,  our government does influence the religion and religion too influences our government. 

The reason for meandering over the definition of Secularism is to highlight the concept of tolerance. Secularism and Tolerance are often mistakenly interchanged for one another. Is the government "Secular" (Unbiased)? Depends upon the party in power but the constitution guarantees us that we are free to practice, profess and propagate the religion we chose. Are we tolerant?  This requires some extra attention. Our nation was born in the partition. That India ‘could sustain democratic institutions seems, on the face of it, highly improbable’, wrote the distinguished political scientist Robert Dahl, adding: ‘It lacks all the favorable conditions.’  Yet we have become the beacon of democracy. How can a nation so diverse with different cultures morph itself into a single entity?  Pan Indian feeling, as described by Nehru in his Discovery of India is definitely one factor.  But the social cohesion is greatly enhanced by another rational factor. Trade. No other person, other than Voltaire could explain this more succinctly. In his Letters Concerning the English Nation, he describes the Royal Exchange as follows: "Take a view of the Royal Exchange in London, a place more venerable than many courts of justice, where the representatives of all nations meet for the benefit of mankind. There the Jew, the Mahometan, and the Christian transact together, as though they all professed the same religion, and give the name of infidel to none but bankrupts".  Tolerance in society arises because of trade. Trade necessitates harmony. Having said this, the intent is not to trivialize the fraternal feelings exhibited by our countrymen.  

What could be our way ahead? We have shown the world that we could bring millions out of poverty and give them a better livelihood. Our Government's Think Tank, NITI aayog has put a keen emphasis on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Some of the Goals, such as  Zero Hunger, Zero Poverty, Quality Healthcare, and education must be taken seriously. COVID 19 Pandemic has exposed the state of health infrastructure in India. Countries that are poorer than India like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have a better health infrastructure than us. According to the latest National Health Accounts (NHA) estimates released on Wednesday, patients bear a big chunk of health expenses — as high as 61 percent of the total health expenditure — by themselves. While India has cities like Chennai as the destination for medical tourism, 55 million Indians were pushed into poverty in a single year because of having to fund their own healthcare and 38 million of them fell below the poverty line due to spending on medicines alone, a study by three experts from the Public Health Foundation of India has estimated. A robust healthcare system is essential to end this irony. Initiatives like Ayushman Bharat are encouraging but the Indian government has to increase its spending on healthcare to at least 5% of GDP.

Annual Status on Education Report for the year 2019 portrays a worrisome state of Education in India. Indian Government has stopped sending its students to participate in PISA tests, due to dismal performances by our children. Right to Education has been made a fundamental right but what is the use if most of the Class V students in India do not know to perform basic arithmetic functions?  Vocational training is almost absent in our education system. While it is true that India has become an IT superpower, we cannot be really assertive that the jobs generated by the IT sector are all valuable, productive, and innovative in nature. Innovations cause disruptions and these disruptions, in turn, become the booster rockets for the economy. India cannot afford to bank on frugal innovation, which is popularly called as Jugaad in the long run. What is missing in the current educational system is the academic freedom and environment for the children and students alike, which can bring out a lot of innovations. The proposed National Education Policy contains a lot of refreshing ideas that can make the current young demographic to pay rich dividends. The Success of the policy lies in the implementation. 

What could be done to counter jobless growth?  India has made considerable progress in the Ease of Doing Business Rankings. Yet most of the businesses are lost in the labyrinth of compliances. One could funnily recall the scene in the movie Shivaji The Boss, where the protagonist is subjected to bureaucratic red tape, regulatory, and statutory compliance headache. Licence Raj has devoured the entrepreneurial spirit in India. This must be rectified. We are afraid of automation stealing the jobs. Unfortunately, India also has one of the youngest populations in the world. To prevent them from being jobless and hence reckless, India must strive to create high-quality jobs. (Automation steals low-quality jobs but creating an automation solution is a high-quality job). 

Approximately 40 - 45% of the workforce in India is employed in agriculture and its allied sectors.  agriculture has long ceased to be the prime moving force of our economy. The share of GDP by agriculture has gone down steadily over the decades and is now at 15 - 16%. There is an urgent need of shifting the workforce from agriculture to the industrial sector, which might raise the income levels of the people. 

Skill India, Startup India are good schemes in the paper but we are yet to see their desired results. A recent trend of emergence of Right-wing governments suggests that globalization is in peril. India must link itself to global value and supply chains to adopt best practices in the trade. MSMEs are responsible for 40% of the total exports of our country and have a very good employment generation potential. They must be given adequate care and an enabling environment. The Government's announcement to revamp the definition of MSMEs is a welcome step in this direction. The State governments of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh have abolished Labour laws. Such draconian measures are uncalled for. Rationalizing rather than total eschewing of labor laws is the sensible solution for this problem. 

The Supreme Court of India, which is supposed to be the guardian of our constitution, is facing a serious erosion of public trust. The National Judiciary Appointments Council which was supposed to replace the opaque collegium was struck down unjustly by the honorable court in the year 2015. While the cases are piling up and are taking up years to get resolved, the judges of the supreme court enjoy an enviable number of summer holidays. The roles of CJI such a being the master of the roaster is being under increased scrutiny now. Judges nowadays rarely turn down the offers of Government offices/postings.  Unless the SC introspects itself, the future appears bleak for the judiciary.

There has been a lot of talk about a lack of social cohesion these days. As mentioned earlier, economic growth is directly tied to social cohesion.  Part of this problem vanishes if there is economic growth. The constitution-makers were visionaries to create a liberal and modern constitution. This is to ensure that minorities develop a sense of trust and connect with the government. Although it is naive to expect the politicians to stop playing politics based on castes and religion, the citizens must turn themselves into rational actors. Even after independence and despite having a modern constitution, social ills like patriarchy, child marriage, female infanticide, lack of social mobility still prevails in our system. Leading thinkers, influencers must introspect if our culture has made us too rigid to be modernized. The intent is not to insult the glory of our culture, rather it is a clarion call for us to adapt and evolve continuously in progressive lines to prevent cultural decay. People from different societies and cultures must come together, discuss, interact so that Indian culture becomes a melting pot of diverse cultures. Politics of appeasement can be brought to an end only if we punish the hypocrisy of our parties. 

India has always belied the doomsayers. After the partition, India cannot be united, they said and were wrong. When we treaded dangerous decades, many predicted civil war and were wrong. When the Babri Masjid was razed down, they were quick to point out the end of the era of secularism, which did not even exist. Our Muslim brothers did not resort to violence when the supreme court gave an unfavorable verdict to them in the Ayodhya case. We stunned the world by making rapid progress in space science so much so that the New York Times magazine had to console itself by publishing a racist cartoon. Indian Diaspora is respected worldwide for its culture, skills, and talent.

Our culture has an inbuilt system of resilience.  The Indian philosophy of Karma is etched deeply in our minds which molds us towards having a sagacious understanding of highs and lows, victories, and defeats.  We are one of the longest surviving civilizations in the world. What does this tell us? We have been often upbeat, going along with the flow, never insecure, and constantly holding up the core values which our ancestors have bestowed upon us. Mother India! You shall be the dispenser of our destinies forever.